24 April 2010

Climate Change Article--The Shetland News

I love climate change articles, especially when reason flies in the face of the the profit potential of the global warming hoax, and mentions the medieval warm period when the Vikings settled Greenland. Several excellent graphs accompanying the article did not paste into Blogger, but they are available by clicking on the title link to see the entire article as it appeared in The Shetland News today, or click the imbedded links within the article as you read. Your choice!

The Shetland News

24 April, 2010

Professor Glover (‘Response from Professor Ann Glover,’ SN 17/4/10) introduces a new version of the “hockey stick” global temperature graph from the Met Office, whose Hadley Centre supplies temperature data to Phil Jones’ “Climategate” CRU at University of East Anglia, where it is processed and sent to IPCC.

The Hadley Centre has been accused by Russian scientists of selecting thermometer sites so that cold sites have been dropped in favour of warmer areas. There are, apparently, no thermometers in Siberia, but plenty in the south, in cities and at airports.

This has been going on in America too, where the total number of thermometers has been reduced by 75 per cent and the period of fastest falling thermometer numbers just happens to coincide with the period of fastest rising global temperatures. See below -
Source: Prof Ross McKittrick, http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html

When, around 1995, they ran out of thermometers to deselect, lo and behold, barring the El Nino record peak in 1998, the warming stopped – what a surprise!

Even after all the shenanigans, Prof Glover’s graph shows only 0.5 degC of rise in 50 years, ie. one degree in the next hundred years, if warming continues at that rate. However “there has been no significant warming since 1995”(Phil Jones at the UK Parliament).

So why all the fuss? Scary predictions of a 4-6 degC rise by 2100. Warming will have to get a move on, though, it has been stuck for 15 years and there are only 90 years to go!

The handle of Prof Glover’s new hockey stick graph is shorter by about 850 years than the notorious one produced by Michael Mann and featured in Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth to “prove the recent warming period was the warmest in 1,000 years.”

In fact, the hockey stick has been shown to be a statistical creation by Canadian statistician Steve McIntyre (see below) and it is now discredited.
Source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/15/hockey-stick-graph-was-exaggerated-mcintyre-gets-props/

That’s why Prof Glover’s hockey stick graph has a short handle, to avoid the embarrassment of the medieval warming period when Vikings cultivated Greenland.

The Duke of Wellington is reputed to have said after Waterloo, “they just kept coming in the same old way.” And so do the global warmers. Even in her sanitised clarification, Prof Glover just couldn’t resist inserting a carefully worded scare:

“I did comment that the Greenland ice sheet holds the equivalent of approximately 6m average global sea level rise and that current uncertainty around climate change does not provide us with information on what average global temperature rise would trigger irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet.”

So what temperature rise would trigger “irreversible melting” and what is the likelihood?

In fact, the Arctic has been far warmer in the past than it is now or is likely to become in the foreseeable future, like when alligators roamed Spitsbergen (75+ deg North).

“At Strathcona Fiord, the fossil record shows that those Eocene forests were inhabited by alligators, giant tortoises, primates, tapirs, and the hippo-like Coryphodon. There have been over 40 papers published on the Eocene fossils of Strathcona Fiord alone. There was no permanent polar ice, and large parts of the polar regions were covered by forests dominated by cypresses and angiosperms. Fossilized remnants of these forests are found in locations such as Spitsbergen, Greenland, the Yukon, northeastern Asia, and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.”
Source: Dr Ann Jefferson: http://hydrogeo.wordpress.com/2010/01/31/coal-the-high-arctic-and-the-fossil-record-of-climate-change/

So there likely wasn’t very much ice in Greenland then-a-days, yet it returned to where it is now, 10,000ft of icecap. Irreversible melting, seems a bit far-fetched to me?

A fundamental requirement of science is that you use your theory to make predictions which can be checked by observation to assess its validity. Tiresome for the “doomsters” is that, year after year, their predictions are confounded.

Red: Global Air Temp Anomaly (deg Celsius) Black: Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
Source: Presentation to US Congressional staff briefing, April 13, 2010, by Dr W. Soon http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/soon_carbon_myopia_talk.pdf

The graph shows a clear downward trend in temperature since 1998, however, the UK Met Office, again, predicts that 2010 will be the warmest year ever, let’s wait and see.

John Tulloch

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